Some predictions and my outlook for 2010.
At world level the role of demonstrations for justice and better living standards will intensify. In the social level, the aggregate anger will be manifested sharply and conflicts within societies will be more apparent.
The economic recovery will be weaker than what history indicates after a serious recession. Banks will continue to be cautious perhaps over copious in commercial lending.
Without another great shock the world economy will continue on the road of slow recovery, with the growth in GDP for 2010 be placed in 4% or less in the US.
Over all global growth will return in 2010, but will not be equal in all geographic areas. The emerging markets will grow at higher levels than the developed economies. What should be heeded by investors is that the central banks must implement the correct policies to prevent “roaring” inflation.
A key for 2010 is not to continue with the bailouts adopted in 2009. The maintenance of the economic recovery will be enhanced by the government’s return again to the private market sector for sustainable growth.
The world economy in 2010 will make a deflationary recovery. Markets, with the help of the right monetary policies and budgetary restrains, will move upward. The key, however, in all this and in particular for the fate of the financial sector will be the American market resilience.